Early epidemiological indicators, outcomes, and interventions of COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), a pandemic that brought the whole world to a standstill, has led to financial and health care burden. We aimed to evaluate epidemiological characteristics, needs of resources, outcomes, and global burden of the disease. METHODS: Systematic review was performed searching PubMed from December 1, 2019, to March 25, 2020, for full-text observational studies that described epidemiological characteristics, following MOOSE protocol. Global data were collected from the JHU-Corona Virus Resource Center, WHO-COVID-2019 situation reports, KFF.org, and Worldometers.info until March 31, 2020. The prevalence percentages were calculated. The global data were plotted in excel to calculate case fatality rate (CFR), predicted CFR, COVID-19 specific mortality rate, and doubling time for cases and deaths. CFR was predicted using Pearson correlation, regression models, and coefficient of determination. RESULTS: From 21 studies of 2747 patients, 8.4% of patients died, 20.4% recovered, 15.4% were admitted to ICU and 14.9% required ventilation. COVID-19 was more prevalent in patients with hypertension (19.3%), smoking (11.3%), diabetes mellitus (10%), and cardiovascular diseases (7.4%). Common complications were pneumonia (82%), cardiac complications (26.4%), acute respiratory distress syndrome (15.7%), secondary infection (11.2%), and septic shock (4.3%). Though CFR and COVID-19 specific death rates are dynamic, they were consistently high for Italy, Spain, and Iran. Polynomial growth models were best fit for all countries for predicting CFR. Though many interventions have been implemented, stern measures like nationwide lockdown and school closure occurred after very high infection rates (>10cases per 100 000population) prevailed. Given the trend of government measures and decline of new cases in China and South Korea, most countries will reach the peak between April 1-20, if interventions are followed. CONCLUSIONS: A collective approach undertaken by a responsible government, wise strategy implementation and a receptive population may help contain the spread of COVID-19 outbreak. Close monitoring of predictive models of such indicators in the highly affected countries would help to evaluate the potential fatality if the second wave of pandemic occurs. The future studies should be focused on identifying accurate indicators to mitigate the effect of underestimation or overestimation of COVID-19 burden.

Pre-existing cerebrovascular disease and poor outcomes of COVID-19 hospitalized patients: a meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Due to pro-inflammatory and hypercoagulation states, COVID-19 infection is believed to increase the risk of stroke and worsen the outcomes of the patients having pre-existing cerebrovascular diseases (CeVD). There is limited literature on prevalence of pre-existing CeVD in COVID-19 patients, and outcomes are unknown. The objective of this meta-analysis is to evaluate the outcomes of COVID-19 patients with pre-existing CeVD. METHODS: English full-text-observational studies having data on epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 patients were identified searching PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus using MeSH-terms COVID-19 OR coronavirus OR SARS-CoV-2 OR 2019-nCoV from December 1, 2019 to April 30, 2020. Studies having CeVD or stroke as one of the pre-existing comorbidities and described outcomes including intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation utilization, and mortality were selected with consensus of three reviewers. Following MOOSE protocol, 11 studies were included. The pooled prevalence of CeVD and outcomes were calculated. Meta-regression was performed, and correlation coefficient (r) and odds ratio (OR) were estimated to evaluate the effects of pre-existing CeVD on outcomes of COVID-19 patients. Meta-analysis with random-effects model was used to calculate OR along with its 95% CI from the studies containing data on composite poor outcome. RESULTS: Out of 8/11 studies showing data on mortality and mechanical ventilation, and 7/11 on ICU admission, pooled prevalence of pre-existing CeVD was 4.4% (244/4987). In age-adjusted meta-regression analysis, pre-existing CeVD was associated with ICU admission [r: 0.60; OR: 1.82 (1.25-2.69)], mechanical ventilation [r: 0.29; OR: 1.33 (1.09-1.63)], and mortality [r: 0.35; OR: 1.42 (1.14-1.77)] amongst COVID-19 hospitalizations. 9/11 studies reported data on binary composite outcomes, the pooled prevalence of pre-existing CeVD was 4.3% (155/3603) and 7.46% (83/1113) amongst COVID-19 hospitalizations and COVID-19 hospitalization-related poor outcomes, respectively. In meta-analysis, COVID-19 patient with pre-existing CeVD had 2.67-fold (1.75-4.06) higher odds of poor outcomes. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 patients with pre-existing cerebrovascular disease have poor outcomes and extra precautions should be taken in managing such patients during the ongoing pandemic.